When trying to predict the future of networked products and services, I’ve always found a little thought experiment useful: what if bandwidth was infinite and free? The recent signing of an agreement  to develop even higher bandwidth wireless mobile technologies than the currently emerging 3G, makes it a good time to ask that question with mobile phones in mind.

To start with, then, let’s begin with the question: what are more convenient to people: wired networks or wireless networks?   I think the current success of Wi-Fi and Bluetooth attest to the fact that people would find a world without wires is far preferable to one with.  So, if people have a choice between two networks of equal capability (infinite bandwidth, zero latency) and equal cost (free), they’re likely to choose the one that’s most convenient to them.  The wireless one.

Now, which of the several wireless networks has the best coverage in your home today: mobile phone wireless networks; your own Wi-Fi network; or Bluetooth?   Be honest.  Bluetooth has very poor range.  Yes, I know it’s supposed to be a personal network – but not everybody knows that.  I feel sorry for the customers of electronics companies who’ve bought Bluetooth-driven Chip and Pin credit card validation units, so they can supposedly take the unit to their customers (e.g. in restaurants).  Or the future customers of the not-to-be-named electronics giant that’s about to release a wireless home media server, streaming content over… Bluetooth! Of course these don’t/won’t work.  But the poor consumers of this equipment will have to find out the hard (and expensive) way.  And what about Wi-Fi?  If you have anything larger than a small home, you’re in for a bit of disappointment.  The signal strength drops of pretty dramatically with the number of intervening walls.  That means if you want to site your wireless access point in your home office, and use your laptop in the conservatory, forget it.  And if you live in a smaller home, you’re increasingly likely to suffer the opposite problem of interference from your neighbours Wi-Fi network.

So, if the mobile phone network has the best coverage in your house already, what’s wrong with using it for everything now?  Well, it’s too slow, and too expensive for data-intensive applications at the moment.  But in our future world of infinite, free bandwidth that won’t be a problem.  And that creates massive opportunities for mobile phone network operators; and developers and publishers of mobile phone software.  And of course… for network applications that are light on data, some of these opportunities exist today…